Trump to resume rallies with Florida event tonight, as Biden visits Ohio

A woman shows her support for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden as boaters pass by showing their support for President Donald Trump during a parade down the Intracoastal Waterway on Oct. 3 in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

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With 22 days to go until the election, President Donald Trump on Monday is slated to speak in-person at an official campaign rally for the first time since contracting COVID-19, as he visits the crucial swing state of Florida.

Meanwhile, Democratic challenger Joe Biden is campaigning in Ohio, another battleground state.

Biden has an edge of 3.7 percentage points over Trump in polls focused on Florida, while his edge in Ohio is less than 1 point, according to the latest RealClearPolitics moving averages. Trump and his campaign have said pollsters are getting the White House race wrong.

Ahead of his trip to Sanford, Fla., for a speech at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, Trump tweeted that Senate Republicans were giving their Democratic colleages a “great deal of time, which is not mandated, to make their self serving statements relative to our great new future Supreme Court Justice. Personally, I would pull back, approve, and go for STIMULUS for the people!!!”

Hearings for Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, are underway in Washington, D.C., on Monday. On the stimulus front, a White House offer in talks on coronavirus aid has been panned by both House Democrats and Senate Republicans.

Data point

Polling avg. in top swing states

Biden +4.5 as of Sunday vs. Biden +4.4 a week ago

National polling avg.

Biden +10.6 as of Friday vs. Biden +8.5 a week ago

Betting markets

Biden 67.1%, Trump 32.7% as of Monday vs. Biden 60.2%, Trump 38.0% a week ago

S&P 500
+1.4% Monday, +5.5% in 1 month

CBOE Volatility Index
+0.1% Monday, -6.9% in 1 month

Sources: RealClearPolitics, FactSet

Biden, for his part, attacked Trump in a statement on Monday morning before the Florida event, saying the Republican incumbent “comes to Sanford today bringing nothing but reckless behavior, divisive rhetoric, and fear mongering.”

The former vice president also told reporters that there should not be any questions about Barrett’s Catholic faith at this week’s hearings, and instead the focus should be on how she might bring about the demise of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

Biden is slated to speak in Toledo, Ohio, on Monday afternoon and then attend a “voter mobilization event” in Cincinnati.

Polling average for top swing states

Source: RealClearPolitics

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics on Monday were giving Biden a 67.1% chance of winning, just below his all-time high of 67.5% hit on Sunday, while Trump was at 32.7%, a new low.

Courts over the weekend made rulings that could affect how votes are cast and counted in the Nov. 3 election, with a Pennsylvania court rejecting a GOP challenge to state voting rules, a Texas judge coming out against limits on drop-box locations, and an Ohio court permitting similar limits.

Trump on Saturday made his first public appearance since returning to the White House after being treated for the coronavirus. His administration insisted the event on the White House’s South Lawn on Saturday was an official event and not a campaign rally but Trump used the address to criticize the Democratic ticket.

U.S. stocks
were moving higher on Monday, while the CBOE Volatility Index
was little changed. Analysts have tied recent gains for equities to decreasing fears about a contested outcome for the presidential election, as well as to hopes that another aid package will become a reality eventually.

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