Redistricting alone could give Republicans control of the House in 2022, experts say

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The Census Bureau released preliminary findings of its 2020 U.S. population count on Monday, laying the groundwork for a once-in-a-decade congressional redistricting process that could be enough in himself to give the Republican Party the five additional seats needed to regain the House of Representatives. majority after the 2022 national elections. According to the new tally, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will lose one seat in Congress. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Florida will get one seat, while Texas will add two.

Read more: New York, California to lose House seats; Florida and Texas to Benefit After Census Bureau Releases 2020 Counts “New census data and redistribution add challenges for Democrats in midterm elections,” wrote Sarah Bianchi, political analyst at Evercore ISI, in a Tuesday note to clients, noting that it states that Democratic President Joe Biden won in the 2020 election and lost three net seats in Congress. “The result was not as bad for Democrats as some thought and there is a long way to go in terms of mapping congressional districts by 2022. However, there is no question that overall it favors Republicans,” he added. . “By historical odds, Democrats already face challenges keeping the House in 2022 as the White House party loses an average of 27 seats, far more than the slim majority Democrats hold today.” Dave Wasserman, editor of the U.S. House of Representatives on the nonpartisan Cook Political report, wrote in a Monday blog post that despite the boost Republicans got from the census redistribution, the real gains will come from the fact that the Republican Party exercises greater control over the redistricting process due to the control of the ruling party at the state level. See Also: Here’s What Dow’s 30 Industrial Companies Say About New Voting Restrictions. He noted that Republicans have full authority to redistrict 187 constituencies in the next year, while Democrats have control of just 75. Democrats have also been more likely to cede control over redistricting to nonpartisan commissions. , as is the case in the Democratic strongholds of Virginia, New York and Colorado. In Oregon, meanwhile, Democrats struck a deal with Republicans to give up sole authority to redistribute there, which could cost the party a seat in next year’s election, Wasserman added. “The Republicans’ biggest redistricting weapons are Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, and they could possibly get the five seats they need for the majority of just those four,” he wrote. Meanwhile, the states most appreciated by Democrats are Illinois and Maryland. The biggest wild cards? New York and Ohio, where lopsided state legislatures could possibly ignore new reforms and impose deeply partisan gerrymanders. ” New York could be the place where Democrats decide to abandon a principled position against manipulation and use their supermajorities to override the independent redistricting commission to create a map that gives Democrats four more seats. Another wild card is if Congress passes legislation to curb partisan manipulation, such as House Resolution 1, also known as the Law For the People. That bill passed the lower house last month but has yet to be scrutinized by the Senate, where Democrats are ten votes short of the 60-vote threshold needed to pass such legislation under current obstructionist rules. “If Democrats acted to reform filibuster, it would be to address voting rights issues in response to voting limitations in states like Georgia and gerrymandering,” Bianchi wrote. “However, Senators Manchin and Sinema have more recently spoken out against changing filibuster, making such changes less likely.”