How much higher can oil prices rise this year? Try $ 75 a barrel. That’s according to the latest forecast from the Goldman Sachs commodities team, which expects global benchmark Brent oil to hit that level in the third quarter, $ 10 above its previous forecast and $ 70 in the second quarter. Those gains will be driven by long-term prices and a sharp pullback, when futures prices are below spot prices, the team said.
Hopes for an economic recovery from the pandemic, fueled by the launch of COVID-19 vaccines, have been pushing investors out of the safe haven of bonds and into commodities and other assets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond TMUBMUSD10Y, 1,351% reached 1,372% on Monday, after gaining 14.5 basis points last week. US and European stocks fell. While they are off their recent highs when Texas and other US states thawed from an intense and rare freeze, oil prices remain at levels not seen in more than a year, with intermediate crude futures at April West Texas CLH21, + 3.02% to $ 59.69 a barrel, and May Brent BRNK21, + 2.75% to $ 62.70 a barrel. On the fundamentals supporting prices, the team sees “better-than-expected demand and still depressed supply, once again creating a larger deficit than we expected in January and February.” Starting in the spring, the oil deficit is likely to widen as not even the increased production of OPEC + (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia) can keep up with the “forecast of recovery of demand above the consensus “of the bank. Furthermore, he expects the recovery of Iran’s exports to take months. As vaccines and hot weather drive demand for planes, Courvalin and the team expect overall global demand to reach 100 million barrels per day by the end of July 2021 versus August 2021 previously, the team predicts.
As for investors, they suggest positioning themselves for those higher prices through a moving index for the first month “to capture a high level of cross assets of 10% annualized positive carry”, or a long position of Brent futures in December of 2021 that they first suggested in August, which “still offers a compelling entry point given the recent flood of producer coverage.” The carry represents a return, in this case positive, that can be expected in the coming year assuming unchanged cash and valuation prices.