IMF raises US and global growth prospects

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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its world economic outlook, citing a much brighter outlook for the US economy. The IMF dramatically raised its outlook for the US in 2021 to 6.4% this year from 5.1%. The United States should see solid growth of 4.4% in 2022. The Fed forecasts that the US economy will grow at a rate of 6.5% this year, but with a more pronounced slowdown to a growth rate of 3.3%. in 2022.

The IMF raised its global growth estimate to 6% this year and 4.4% next. This represents an improvement of 0.5% for 2021 and 0.2% for 2022 over what it forecast in January. Gita Gopinath, IMF economic adviser, said that “a way out of this economic and health crisis is increasingly visible.” Medium-term losses from the pandemic are likely to be lower than those after the financial crisis. But this time around, low-income countries and emerging markets will suffer the most compared to the consequences of the Great Recession. 2020 area Growth 2021 projection Previous estimate 2021 2022 projection World production -3.3% 6% 5.5% 4.4% USA -3.5% 6.4% 5.1% 3.5% Euro zone -6.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% Japan -4.8% 3.3% 3.1% 2.5% United Kingdom -9.9% 5.3% 4.5% 5.1% Canada -5.4% 5% 3.6% 4.7% China 2.3% 8.4% 8.1% 5.6% India -8% 12.5% ​​11.5% 6 .9% Brazil -4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 2.6% Russia -3.1% 3.8% 3% 3.8% The only region that experienced a decline in growth this year was the “ASEAN-5”: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Projected growth for these five nations combined in 2021 fell to 4.9% from a previous forecast of 5.2%. Gopinath warned that the prognosis is very uncertain and much still depends on the race between the COVID-19 virus and vaccines. Rising long-term interest rates in the US will not pose difficulties for other countries unless the DJIA markets, + 1.13% SPX, + 1.44% have the feeling that Federal Reserve policy needs to be adjusted abruptly. Prominent central banks will need to provide clear communication as they begin to tighten monetary policy, the IMF said. The IMF said inflationary pressure would remain contained in most countries. The prices of raw materials, such as BRN00 oil, + 1.59%, are expected to reaffirm even more in the coming months. Headline inflation could become volatile in the coming months. But this volatility should be short-lived.