Citi maintains a grouping of 18 different indicators intended to mark a bear market, and the latest update does not suggest that it is time to sell. The checklist, in particular, did not predict the pandemic-induced reduction of COVID-19 in 2020, but it did rise before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 and the financial crisis of 2008-09.
The Citi team led by Mert Genc found that stock market-focused indicators such as valuations and initial public offering activity are showing signs of late-cycle overrun. “It’s not hard to find signs of glut in global equity markets right now,” Genc said.
But other measures on the checklist, including corporate profitability and the yield curve, are consistent with an early cycle. The overall index is 7.5 out of 18, and the bank recommends buying dips when the index is below 10. The team found that bear market checklists in emerging markets (seven out of 18) and Europe (six out of 18) ) were also far from indicating an imminent recession. The S&P 500 SPX, + 0.18% on Monday posted its 24th record high of the year, and is up 87% from the March 2020 lows.