Amazon earnings preview: Prime Day could return to summer after COVID-19 pushed it down last year

Amazon.com Inc. is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on Thursday after the closing bell, but analysts are already anticipating the possible summer return of the colossal Prime Day shopping event.

“Prime Day remains a wild card, and rumors first suggested a possible June change before further alleged leaks on Friday pointed to a normal July period,” Benchmark’s Daniel Kurnos wrote in a note. Analysts are confident that the accelerated shift to e-commerce, which has already benefited Amazon, continued through the first quarter. But experts are looking to the rest of 2021, when the launch of the vaccine and the slow return to normal life could once again shift spending. Read: Expect ‘Staggering’ Sales Figures From Consumer Businesses As The Calendar Passes By COVID Closures “While we continue to hear about inconsistent consumer data points heading into the second quarter, we believe a combination of money from Stimulus, learned e-commerce behaviors and ad strength should more than offset the expected impact of the reopening, which we suspect will be less than anticipated regardless, ”Benchmark said. “Assuming Prime Day returns to its normal July schedule, Amazon will face a 40% growth rate comparison driven by the pandemic, a hurdle 14 points higher than Q1.” Amazon stock purchase benchmark rates with a $ 4,400 price target. Sales metrics have gotten out of control for many retailers as consumers lived under pandemic lockdowns for much of 2020. Additionally, a large amount of spending went to “stuff,” from groceries to household items to items that would help. to pass the time. many of which can be purchased on Amazon. Plus: The United States will reopen on July 4 and restaurants are poised to benefit from the desire to ‘go out and meet,’ says JPMorgan Now, consumers are starting to spend on ‘experiences’ again, like dining out and sporting events, and There is concern about how that change could affect a variety of retailers that saw sales spike during COVID-19 or saw sales virtually stagnate. “For the first time in several years, we believe Amazon’s guidance will be close to the mark, and we are modeling only modestly higher revenue and operating profit than the company’s high-level guidance,” Wedbush analysts wrote. Wedbush rates Amazon stocks outperforming with a price target of $ 4,000. Amazon guided first-quarter sales from $ 100 billion to $ 106 billion. By October 2020, Amazon had already recorded its most profitable year. The company also announced during its fourth quarter earnings report that Jeff Bezos will step down as CEO in the third quarter of 2021 and will be succeeded by Amazon Web Services Director Andy Jassy. Bezos will continue as CEO of the company. And: Jeff Bezos’ successor as Amazon CEO Andy Jassy wins the nod from analysts Amazon has an average stock purchase rating, according to 50 analysts surveyed by FactSet, with an average price target of $ 4,027, 74. Here’s what else and what for when Amazon reports its earnings: Earnings: The FactSet consensus is for earnings per share of $ 9.54, up from $ 5.01 last year. Estimate, what collective sources estimate from sell-side and buy-side analysts, hedge fund managers, executives, academics, and others, forecast EPS of $ 11.16. Amazon has outperformed the FactSet EPS consensus in the last three quarters. Revenue: The FactSet consensus is for revenue of $ 104.50 billion, up from $ 75.45 billion last year. The Estimate forecast is for revenue of $ 107.39 billion. Amazon has beaten FactSet’s revenue forecast for the past nine quarters. Share Price: Amazon shares are up 5% year-to-date and are up 41.7% over the last year. Amplify Online Retail’s IBUY ETF, + 0.43% has risen 11.1% for 2021 so far. And the S&P 500 SPX Index, + 0.31%, was up 11.6% over the period. See: As Bezos seeks to be ‘the best employer on Earth’, Amazon fights against calls from shareholders to demonstrate their progress Y: Bezos’ swan song lyrics promise an ‘obsession’ with the well-being of grocery employees in line. Total online grocery sales reached $ 95.8 billion in 2020, and are expected to reach $ 112.9 billion in 2021, according to data from eMarketer. “We believe that SIP [shelter-in-place] accelerated the growth of Amazon Fresh and we expect the customers gained during the pandemic to remain customers, ”Wedbush analysts said. Amazon is also the parent company of Whole Foods Market. Wedbush estimates the US grocery market opportunity to be $ 800 billion. “While Amazon is unlikely to increase this share by more than about 1% per year, the opportunity is substantial and even the 1% market share gain reflects a more than 2% increase in overall sales.” -Other Amazon businesses provide a cushion during recovery. “The shape of the recovery here in the United States and abroad will largely determine the pace of the slowdown in retail business,” Stifel analysts wrote. Amazon’s 200 million Prime members are working on behalf of the e-commerce giant, but there are other benefits. “As compensation, Amazon’s faster-growing, higher-margin businesses, AWS and marketing, are well positioned for a recovery and can support stronger margins throughout the current investment cycle,” Stifel analysts wrote. Stifel rates the Amazon stock purchase with a price target of $ 4,000.